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 Election Prediction Thread 

Who will win the election?
Poll ended at Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:09 pm
Barack Obama 73%  73%  [ 11 ]
Mitt Romney 27%  27%  [ 4 ]
Total votes : 15

 Election Prediction Thread 
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Post Election Prediction Thread
This poll is not asking who you're voting for. It is asking who you think will win the election.

Make your choice and then give your electoral college prediction and just for fun... your popular vote percentage prediction.

This poll will be closed on Nov. 5. :-)

Oh, and don't give me any crap about third parties. Obama and Romney are the only ones with a legitimate chance to win.

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Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:09 pm
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:sombrero: :sombrero: :sombrero:
:texasstate: :texasstate: :texasstate:

Obama 49%

Romney 45%


Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:03 pm
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Popular vote doesn't matter. My prediction for the Electoral College is Obama 290, Romney 248. Romney wins Florida and Virginia. Obama takes Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, whatever else you still might consider a swing state. I could see Colorado going for Romney as well but it won't make a difference in the outcome.

Assuming Romney wins Florida, he needs Ohio and at least two other swing states (Virginia and Colorado being the most likely) to win. I don't think he's going to get Ohio. If he doesn't get Ohio, he'll need at least 4 other swing states to win and I don't think that's happening either.

With the state polling the way it is now, the path to 270 is much easier for Obama than it is for Romney and that likely points to Obama being re-elected.


Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:29 am
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Ahh, good point. Changing the original post...

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Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:29 am
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Just to clarify a point, can Obama win without cheating? We already know that the address verification software has been disabled again this year on his web site, thereby allowing foreigners and fake people to contribute. Now we see he's paying people for their votes. I use the plural of that word intentionally.

http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2012/10/ ... ith+LID%29

http://tinyurl.com/cfdwe9m


Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:45 am
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One other thing I should mention is that voting machines in North Carolina and Nevada have already been discovered to be changing Romney votes to Obama votes. Guess which union is responsible for maintaining the machines in Nevada?

Sorry for hijacking your thread, Casey. I'll go back to my own.


Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:53 am
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Taking off my personal hat and putting on my political science hat, I'll go with the following:

Popular vote:
Obama: 48%
Romney: 46%

As usual, popular vote is closer than the electoral college count.

Electoral College:
Obama: 290
  • gets Ohio by a fairly easy margin that slightly exceeds the national popular vote; Romney can't overcome the auto bailout issue, which swings traditionally purple Cinci & Columbus blue this year (fun fact: there are only about 6 swing counties within this "swing state"). I just don't think this race is as close as pundits on both sides would have you believe.
  • gets Wisconsin, which will be the 2nd closest race of this election. In this case, the whole anti-union thing bites the Republicans in the ass. It isn't that Wisconsin is "pro-union," its that Walker stepped a little too far out there and caused backlash that carries this election. Basically, Romney loses a state he would have otherwise won because of the actions of other Republicans. This will be discussed amongst pundits as a demonstration of the importance of tackling major reforms like this incrementally, and that politicians should be careful in judging an election a "mandate" from a notoriously fickle electorate. Had Walker taken a smaller bite on pushing back against unions, then I think Romney would have gotten Wisconsin
  • gets New Hampshire, simply because I think it follows the rest of New England this year
  • gets Nevada, where it again comes down to union support
  • gets Colorado in the closest state race of the bunch. In this case, Gov. Hickinlooper's 60% approval rating as a democrat gives Obama the edge by association. Look for this race to be decided by less than 1%

Romney: 248
  • in Florida, social conservatism wins out with existing seniors, who aren't really interested in Medicare, Social Security, etc. as long as the benefits they already get are not affected. Current seniors don't care about future seniors, so those issues don't weigh particularly heavy with the blue hairs in Florida. They know no politician would dare do anything to people already receiving those services.
  • gets Virginia because Democratic northern Virginia doesn't come out as energized like they did in 2008. Virginia is a very purple state though and will probably become the preeminent swing state in future elections, eclipsing Ohio, Florida & Wisconsin

On a completely unrelated note, my big beef with electronic voting machines is that they produce no written record for audit & recount purposes. You want to talk about high potential for error (or worse, voter fraud), these machines are the real issue--not whether someone has an ID. And I'm talking fraud issues with both parties. They are very prone to error and, from my personal experience talking with our local election coordinator, a huge pain in the ass to program with lots of opportunity for human error.

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Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:49 am
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Post Re: Election Prediction Thread
Romney, 52%
Obama, 47%

Or an even wider margin.

The news is getting out there about the Benghazi coverup. Even the MSM is starting to question why Obama sat in the situation room and watched those men die. This is worse than Watergate.

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney, thereby putting Iowa in the Romney column. Obama has given up on Florida, which is good news, since that means DWS will probably go bye-bye also. Ohio is now tied. The news about Jeep manufacturing going overseas is coming out just in time. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota (gasp) are now tied. Romney is leading in Colorado, despite the state being overrun with Californians. The union issue in Wisconsin is less a factor than you may think. Because of what Scott Walker did, the state is doing much better financially now, and people are seeing their property tax bills decreasing.

The hurricane is hampering the early voting effort, which Obama has been relying on. He wants people to vote early so they can't change their minds when all of his screw-ups are uncovered. It's too bad that people who voted early can't ask for a do-over.

Most of the polls are skewed toward the democrats, so take that into account.


Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:31 pm
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By the way, despite Harvey Weinstein's efforts, the movie being broadcast 2 days before the election isn't gonna change people's minds.

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Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:41 pm
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:roll:

the MSM is biased, the polls are biased, early voting is biased (somehow??), killing bin laden is biased, education is biased, public media is biased. on and on and on and on and on.

Soo tired of this standard issue BS.

If republicans are so good and honest and right, then why aren't they running away with this election?

Go ahead and keep making excuses. Excuses are a good way to hedge your bet in case you lose, you'll have something to fall back on. Can't wait to hear how obama "stole" the election and how it's worse than watergate. lol.

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Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:34 pm
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FromTxStWithLove wrote:
:roll:

the MSM is biased, the polls are biased, early voting is biased (somehow??), killing bin laden is biased, education is biased, public media is biased. on and on and on and on and on.

Soo tired of this standard issue BS.

If republicans are so good and honest and right, then why aren't they running away with this election?

Go ahead and keep making excuses. Excuses are a good way to hedge your bet in case you lose, you'll have something to fall back on. Can't wait to hear how obama "stole" the election and how it's worse than watergate. lol.


People didn't die at the Watergate facility, did they? If you can't see the bias, it's because your head is either in the sand, or up your butt.


Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:39 pm
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why is it when you quote someone who uses a smilie face, you get the text version?

THIS IS THE OUTRAGE PEOPLE!

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Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:42 pm
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ChicagoGuy wrote:

People didn't die at the Watergate facility, did they? If you can't see the bias, it's because your head is either in the sand, or up your butt.


I don't deny that bias exists, but the existence of bias doesn't prove that you or you're party are right about anything.

You complain about the many liberal biases that exist, both real and imagined, and believe that we should ignore these. You also think that anyone who believes something other than what you believe has their "head up their butt". All the while you have nothing to say about the real and imagined biases of the right wing.

You are 100% balls-to-the-wall partisan, and you are obviously extremely biased. By your logic, everything you say should be ignored because it is so clearly biased.

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Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:17 pm
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FromTxStWithLove wrote:
ChicagoGuy wrote:

People didn't die at the Watergate facility, did they? If you can't see the bias, it's because your head is either in the sand, or up your butt.


I don't deny that bias exists, but the existence of bias doesn't prove that you or you're party are right about anything.

You complain about the many liberal biases that exist, both real and imagined, and believe that we should ignore these. You also think that anyone who believes something other than what you believe has their "head up their butt". All the while you have nothing to say about the real and imagined biases of the right wing.

You are 100% balls-to-the-wall partisan, and you are obviously extremely biased. By your logic, everything you say should be ignored because it is so clearly biased.


Fine. Go cast your vote for Obama. There's no vaccine for dumbass.


Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:56 pm
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Post Re: Election Prediction Thread
Try this on for size:

http://thisainthell.us/blog/?p=32605


Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:30 pm
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