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 PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement 
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
I don't see us beating SMU, Troy, or UL but I think we beat Wyoming.


Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:34 pm
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
Beating Troy and ULL? it'd be nice to get that ULaLa monkey off our backs.


Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:42 pm
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TheRevSWT wrote:

Given that, it's not crazy to set expectations at a bowl game. Is it "almost assured"? No. But it's taxman. Take anything he says and reduce it by 30-40% and you have a realistic outlook.




We lost 5 games by 10 points or less with rookie QBs and lost only 8 Seniors (most who weren't key contributors) overall.

The floor for the team returning is five wins with a ceiling of 8-9 wins next season. It's not going out on a limb to say a Bowl game is assured. You could split hairs and say "bowl eligible", because being Texas State we could get snubbed with 6 or 7 wins again, but outlook for next season's squad isn't as dire as this year.


Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:19 pm
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
Bobbumman wrote:
x wrote:
But an 8-4 TXST won't be left out before a 6-6 Sun Belt team


@TAMU (L)
WYOMING (L)
@SMU (W)
NICHOLLS (W)

@APP (L)
@STATE (L)
@CCU (W)
@ULL (W)
GAST (W)
USA (W)

TROY (W)
ULM (W)

These results should not be out of reach for a competent 2019 staff. The bad news is we lose GASO whom we were only a safety, an extra point and a coaching staff away from beating




I see the games in bold as likely wins. Troy and App St are still a league above us, and ULL still has too much speed for us to contend with.


Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:24 pm
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
I'm cautiously optimistic going into next year. Only because Withers came in saying we were going to score a bunch of points and have an exciting offense too. Not saying Spavital won't be able to do it, but it's been said before and hasn't happened.

With that being said, if Spavital is able to implement his offense and we do score a bunch of points, I am closer to Taxman's expectations.

Unlike when Withers took over, we are in a good place roster wise. Spavital shouldn't need a lot of time to win, and if he can capitalize on the momentum that Withers had going, we could win a lot of games next year.

@TAMU (L)
WYOMING (L)
@SMU (L)
NICHOLLS (W)
@APP (L)
@STATE (L)
@CCU (W)
@ULL (W)
GAST (W)
USA (W)
TROY (L)
ULM (W)

Wyoming, SMU, Arkansas State, and Troy are all toss ups in my mind. 5-6 wins is expected with an upside of 10 wins. Again, this is all dependent on Spavital being able to implement a successful offense and the defense remains the same or gets better.

Like Taxman said, we lost 5 games by 10 points or less. Most were due to coaching mistakes including bad situational play calling.


Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:42 pm
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
New Coaching staff implementing new systems on both sides of the ball. We have one of the youngest teams in the conference. Put those two together, and I can see some losses coming from inexperience, and unfamiliarity with the systems players are trying to internalize.

That said: 6 wins. I think 6 is a realistic expectation in year 1. Anything over 6, icing on the cake.

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Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:55 pm
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
Bobcat87 wrote:
New Coaching staff implementing new systems on both sides of the ball. We have one of the youngest teams in the conference. Put those two together, and I can see some losses coming from inexperience, and unfamiliarity with the systems players are trying to internalize.

That said: 6 wins. I think 6 is a realistic expectation in year 1. Anything over 6, icing on the cake.




That's where I'm at also. But I think with Spavital, we don't get snubbed for a bowl this time around.


Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:07 am
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
Bobcat.taxman wrote:
Bobcat87 wrote:
New Coaching staff implementing new systems on both sides of the ball. We have one of the youngest teams in the conference. Put those two together, and I can see some losses coming from inexperience, and unfamiliarity with the systems players are trying to internalize.

That said: 6 wins. I think 6 is a realistic expectation in year 1. Anything over 6, icing on the cake.




That's where I'm at also. But I think with Spavital, we don't get snubbed for a bowl this time around.


The snub has to do with who else qualifies. The NOLA Bowl will take the conference champ and that is the closest bowl to us. The Cure Bowl took the runner up. App St, UL, and stAte have proven to travel well to bowls and one of the Alabama bowls took stAte based on that in years past. We didn't get in at 7-5 and a 6-6 USA did because the bowl was in the same state as them and they thought USA would sell more tickets. That is why Teis should have started a preorder for tickets to show our interest because we have no data to prove otherwise having never been to a bowl. With Troy, USA, GS, and GSU all near the two Alabama bowls, it is hard to see them not wanting one of those teams if they are at least 6-6. TXST and ULM and probably CCU are all seen as not as desirable for a bowl because we haven't proven we can sell tickets. At the end of the day these bowls care about money.


Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:19 am
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
slycat wrote:
The snub has to do with who else qualifies. The NOLA Bowl will take the conference champ and that is the closest bowl to us. The Cure Bowl took the runner up. App St, UL, and stAte have proven to travel well to bowls and one of the Alabama bowls took stAte based on that in years past. We didn't get in at 7-5 and a 6-6 USA did because the bowl was in the same state as them and they thought USA would sell more tickets. That is why Teis should have started a preorder for tickets to show our interest because we have no data to prove otherwise having never been to a bowl. With Troy, USA, GS, and GSU all near the two Alabama bowls, it is hard to see them not wanting one of those teams if they are at least 6-6. TXST and ULM and probably CCU are all seen as not as desirable for a bowl because we haven't proven we can sell tickets. At the end of the day these bowls care about money.


I'm a lot less worried about getting snubbed the next time, even with 6 wins. There were less Sunbelt bowl tie-ins then, and I've always been pretty sure the NOVA Home Loans bowl in Arizona was created pretty much just for us, being that we're the only ones remotely close to AZ. Of course, the inaugural year was when Fran shit the bed.

I'd like to think that Teis has also learned something after the last two times and will actually be proactive next time. But that's probably just wishful thinking.


Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:54 am
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DrumCat wrote:
I'm a lot less worried about getting snubbed the next time, even with 6 wins. There were less Sunbelt bowl tie-ins then, and I've always been pretty sure the NOVA Home Loans bowl in Arizona was created pretty much just for us, being that we're the only ones remotely close to AZ. Of course, the inaugural year was when Fran shit the bed.

I'd like to think that Teis has also learned something after the last two times and will actually be proactive next time. But that's probably just wishful thinking.


I think you should be just as worried. 4 teams sat home this year, and sure enough... One of them was from the Sun Belt.

Keep in mind while there were less bowl tie-ins when we made it, the league was also much worse. NMSU, Idaho, and Georgia State had zero shot at a bowl, and I think when we were 6-6, neither Georgia Southern or App State were bowl eligible.

The only way we "guarantee" ourselves a bowl invite is by making it to the championship game.

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Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:49 pm
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DrumCat wrote:

I'd like to think that Teis has also learned something after the last two times and will actually be proactive next time.

That's funny.


Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:45 pm
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Dirtbag wrote:
That's funny.


Thx I use humor to mask the pain.


Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:03 am
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Post Re: PRESS CONFERENCE: Jake Spavital Announcement
DrumCat wrote:
There were less Sunbelt bowl tie-ins then, and I've always been pretty sure the NOVA Home Loans bowl in Arizona was created pretty much just for us, being that we're the only ones remotely close to AZ. Of course, the inaugural year was when Fran shit the bed.


I think the deal with the AZ Bowl and the Sun Belt expires after next year. I think it's very possible the Sun Belt loses the tie-in after that. The Sun Belt will have a tie-in in the new bowl game starting in 2020 in Myrtle Beach.


Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:39 pm
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