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Post Re: Georgia State
TheRevSWT wrote:

Having said that, I seem to recall a few others saying how Withers seemed to hold special teams (mainly the kicking aspect, not so much the return game) in such low regard (almost disdain), which would sort of foot with how our special teams have performed this year. Sub par FG/XP, and really really pedestrian numbers in the punting game.


Yeah, that's not true. He spends time and puts importance on special teams. That isn't the issue.

The issue is multi-dimensional. One, some of his schemes are not very good for the type of athlete (including kickers) Texas State has. Withers uses almost all of the special teams schemes that Urban Meyer used. He brought them from Ohio State to JMU to Texas State. That sounds great in theory, but it doesn't necessarily work across all teams/personnel. Without boring you to death with specifics, Texas State doesn't have the ability to do some of the things asked of personnel in those schemes. Also, as I have harped on numerous times before, he has coaches leading special teams units without having any experience coaching them previously. That's always cause for concern. It leads to them only knowing the scheme they are taught to coach here and can't bring anything of value/outside to those units. Further, there is not a single person on that staff who knows what to look for in recruiting specialists. It isn't as simple as "Oh, he kicks the ball really far as a kicker, so he has a strong like." It's not as simple as "Oh, he snaps the ball really fast." Finally, there also is not a single person on that staff who knows how to coach specialists - they don't have drills for them; they can't identify small flaws in mechanics that lead to big problems; they don't know of how to correct mechanics even if they could identify flaws.

Putting all four of those things together leads to the special teams being the worst in the country, dead last, for back-to-back seasons.


Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:15 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
run faster wrote:
Finally, there also is not a single person on that staff who knows how to coach specialists - they don't have drills for them; they can't identify small flaws in mechanics that lead to big problems; they don't know of how to correct mechanics even if they could identify flaws.


I said this was probably the case to a buddy during the game. Seems pretty apparent to me.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:56 am
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Post Re: Georgia State
run faster wrote:
Putting all four of those things together leads to the special teams being the worst in the country, dead last, for back-to-back seasons.



That's just not true.

Punt yds/ret 12.13 35th in nation

Ko ret 18.94 92nd

Opp punt ret 7.2 52nd

Opp ko ret 17.33 14th

Three of the four we are in the top half of the country. Our opponents return numbers have gone down remarkably under Withers compared to Fran's.

Our PAT % isn't even the worst in conference. Two teams miss at a higher rate.

We are not even dead last in the nation in FG% even though we have an abysmal 46% success rate. UNLV is worse.


In Withers prior two seasons we made FG's at a 70 and 71% rate. Under Fran last three years we were 57.9, 63.2, and 60%.


Comparing Frans' and Withers' special teams further, we are now vastly improved in defending oppononts returns.


Fran (13-15) oppon p ret 8.98yds/ret compared to 16-18 7.4yds/ret

opponents ko ret fran 26.39yds/ret withers 21.2 yds/ret


Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:36 am
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Post Re: Georgia State
Colt Golden wrote:
Our PAT % isn't even the worst in conference. Two teams miss at a higher rate.


Note when I say this I am not doubting because I haven't bothered to look it up, but having said that..

HOLY FUCK THAT IS HARD TO BELIEVE!

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Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:29 am
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Post Re: Georgia State
Rev, I had to look up the national rankings because of your comment.

We are bad at 126 out of 130.

What is remarkable, at least this year, is that 6 of the bottom 12 are Sun Belt teams.

Alabama is in the bottom 12; so obviously, using run fasters logic, they must not coach their specialists.


Maybe we can catch Baylor who is right above us in PAT %.

pat%
2015 86.5% Fran

2016 92.9% Withers

This year we are at 85.7%.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:51 am
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Geez, I'm surprised it is that high actually.

It just seems like every other PAT was missed or blocked.

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Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:26 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
x wrote:
run faster wrote:
Finally, there also is not a single person on that staff who knows how to coach specialists - they don't have drills for them; they can't identify small flaws in mechanics that lead to big problems; they don't know of how to correct mechanics even if they could identify flaws.


I said this was probably the case to a buddy during the game. Seems pretty apparent to me.


This is not uncommon. A very good friend of mine is the starting punter at a prominent university here in Texas and he tells me that no one on the team knows anything about kicking and no one coaches them either. He says everything he learns and tries is on his own at practice. And if the coaches think he “messes up” a kick in the game it really pisses him off because he says no one is on the staff to help teach him things.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:51 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
Colt Golden wrote:
run faster wrote:
Putting all four of those things together leads to the special teams being the worst in the country, dead last, for back-to-back seasons.



That's just not true.

Punt yds/ret 12.13 35th in nation

Ko ret 18.94 92nd

Opp punt ret 7.2 52nd

Opp ko ret 17.33 14th

Three of the four we are in the top half of the country. Our opponents return numbers have gone down remarkably under Withers compared to Fran's.

Our PAT % isn't even the worst in conference. Two teams miss at a higher rate.

We are not even dead last in the nation in FG% even though we have an abysmal 46% success rate. UNLV is worse.


In Withers prior two seasons we made FG's at a 70 and 71% rate. Under Fran last three years we were 57.9, 63.2, and 60%.


Comparing Frans' and Withers' special teams further, we are now vastly improved in defending oppononts returns.


Fran (13-15) oppon p ret 8.98yds/ret compared to 16-18 7.4yds/ret

opponents ko ret fran 26.39yds/ret withers 21.2 yds/ret



It's absolutely true. You simply don't know what you're looking at.

If you'd like me to prove how, I'll be glad to. Note, it is a long read - very informative - but a bit lengthy. It is also supported by a group of Ivy League grads who evaluate statistics that actually measure what is and what isn't important. The stats that you're looking at are, many times, garbage.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:30 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
Show your Ivy leaguers data. You show me one formula saying we are dead last and I will show you three saying we aren't.

Phil Steele says we were not dead last in 2017. I will take his formula over the others.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:24 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
Colt Golden wrote:
Show your Ivy leaguers data. You show me one formula saying we are dead last and I will show you three saying we aren't.

Phil Steele says we were not dead last in 2017. I will take his formula over the others.


Take this one step at a time, because I am not sure your brain is able to handle anything other than that. We will simply look at one aspect of just one of your bogus statistics. Those "formulas" you use are bogus. I will show that fairly fast in this post. Then, in the italicized section I copy-and-pasted from my guy who explained this stuff to me, you'll see how those own formulas can have drastically different results of the same team in the same statistic.

You claimed that my comment was wrong. One of your major arguments to refute my claim is that Texas State is 14th in the country in kickoff return defense allowing 17.33 yards/return. They've actually moved up to 13th in the country after yesterday's game according to your statistic, so that would seem to help your argument:

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs ... t/team/463

Now, let me dumb this down for you. The statistic above - the one you are using for your argument - measures how many yards a kickoff team allows per return. It's quite simple, and on the outside, seems logical. It simply looks at how many return yards opponents have against that particular kickoff team and then divides it by the number of kicks returned. That seems reasonable, right? I mean, after all, the goal of a kickoff team is to limit the yards returned, right? Well, not really.

The goal of a kickoff team is to force the opposing offense to start as deep in their territory as possible. For instance, let's look at two hypothetical teams:

Team A has kicked off ten times. The opponent has returned the kick all ten times. Each kick is caught at the goal line. Each kick is returned 15 yards. That means 150 total return yards on 10 kicks, so Team A is allowing 15 yards per return, right?

Now, compare with Team B.

Team B has kicked off ten times. The opponent has returned the kick all ten times. Each kick is caught at the ten yard line. Each kick is returned 12 yards. That means 120 total return yards on 10 kicks, so Team B is allowing 12 yards per return, right?

According to the statistic you used for your argument, Team B is doing a better job on kickoffs because they are only allowing 12 yards instead of 15 yards like Team A. However, when you actually look at the real, meaningful statistics, Team A is forcing opponents to start all of their drives after kickoffs on the 15 yard line while Team B is forcing opponents to start all of their drives after kickoffs on the 22 yard line.

Now, tell me, which kickoff team is, by far, doing the better job? But according to your bogus and illogical statistic, you are forced into arguing Team B is doing the better job. Do you see how bad the statistic you are using is, thus crushing your argument?

The best part? That is just the outsider's look at the important statistic. There is more that goes into what is important (if you read the italicized part at the bottom of this post, you will see another huge aspect that goes into it). When you look at the statistics that actually measure a kickoff unit, Texas State is actually more than three times worse in the rankings than what you argued. Let me know if you want me to really get in-depth with data about how what I explained is just one aspect of measuring a kickoff unit.

Want to play again? Lets look at punts.

Team A has their offense stall at the opponent's 35 yard line every drive. They've punted from the opponent's 35 yard line ten times. Each of the ten times, the ball is fair caught or downed at the 1 yard line. That means Team A is averaging 34 yards per punt.

Team B has their offense stall at their own 30 yard line every drive. They've punted from their own 30 yard line ten times. Each of the ten times, the ball is fair caught or downed at the opponent's 35 yard line. That means Team B is averaging 35 yards per punt.

Based on the statistics you argue, Team B is doing a better job punting, because they average 35 yards per punt compared with the 34 that Team A averages. However, you fail to understand that Team A is successfully flipping the field by over 97% of the available yardage and forcing every offense to start at the 1 yard line while Team B is flipping the field by 50% of the available yardage. And again, this is just the basic explanation and example of looking at what is important regarding punting units.

Do you see how the statistics you are looking at to make your argument are incredibly bogus and result in your argument being terribly flawed?

This isn't some ultra-weird, MoneyBall-esque theory. This is legitimate, logical use of statistics. As I said, there are a group of Ivy League grads (and a college football assistant coach) who have looked at this stuff for years. They not only rank each special teams unit using logical data (instead of the bogus ones you are looking at), but they then compile all of them into one ranking to measure each team's overall special teams ranking. Last year, Texas State was dead last. This year, Texas State is dead last. If you look at the top 20 teams in their rankings and the bottom 20 teams of their rankings, you will see a huge relationship between special teams rankings (done correctly) and win/loss record. That doesn't hold true in the bogus statistics you look at, as somebody already mentioned in this thread regarding Alabama's lack of kicking game this season.

Unfortunately, many college coaches look at these bogus rankings and think they are doing a good job based on their national/conference ranking. They don't understand that holding a kick return team to 17 yards is shitty if they're still starting their drives at the 30 yard line. They think they are doing a better job than a team allowing 19 yard per return even though those offenses are starting at only the 25 yard line.

Want me to really fuck your head? This is a copy-and-paste from my guy who was a part of Texas State athletics last year who I have learned this stuff from. He was adamant about how poorly coached Texas State's special teams are (and just about everything else I have railed about on here):

This is a perfect example to showing how the commonly used statistics are so absurd. Last year, Marshall's kick coverage unit ranked #13 in the country according to the NCAA stats. According to the NCAA stats, they were 3rd in C-USA behind UTEP and FAU. According to the NCAA, UTEP had the top ranked kick coverage unit in Conference USA:

http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings

However, if you go to the Conference USA website, you will see that UTEP had the worst (#14) ranked kick coverage unit in the conference:

http://conferenceusa.com/stats.aspx?pat ... &year=2017

How can one team be ranked as top in the conference according to one reputable source but be ranked last in the conference in the same thing according to another reputable source? It's because there are too many foolis in this world. And unfortunately, there are just as many foolish coaches who don't understand this, look at the stats that are illogical, and think their schemes/systems are right because of it.

In the above example, the NCAA stats are ranking a kick coverage team based on how many yards they allow on the return. The C-USA website ranks the same statistic based on the net yardage (how many yards the ball was kicked and how many yards the ball was returned deducted from it).

The C-USA way is far better and more logical but still misses a big hole . . . and this is where the really good shit comes in. The important measure is where the opposition starts their drive. That's the only thing that matters. However, how important is starting from the 15 yard line compared to say, the 19 yard line? We will get to that.

Pretend that Penn State allows their opponent to start at the 12 yard line after every kickoff. That would be phenomenal, and the defensive coordinator would be cool with giving half of his salary to the kick coverage coach. Now, pretend that Stanford allows their opponent to start at the 13 yard line after every kickoff. Again, that would be amazing coverage. Which team would do a better job? The obvious answer, by a yard, is Penn State, right? Well, statistics are still missing a huge part of the story.

Pretend that Penn State didn't cause a single turnover in kick coverage all year. On the other hand, Stanford caused 2-4 turnovers on kick coverage throughout the year. Is getting 2-4 turnovers, especially that close to your opponent's end zone, better than giving up one more yard per kick return on average? I would think so. But you can't simply "think." You have to know. Just how valuable is it to give your offense the ball on your opponent's 10 yard line, 14 yard line, or 20 yard line? I'd think that is pretty damn important since it is almost likely leading to points either with a TD or a FG. But again, thinking isn't good enough. Show me proof.

I have it.

For every single game between two FBS teams over the last ten years, I have the starting location and results of each drive. Garbage drives (those at the end of a half or game when a team isn't trying to score) are excluded from it. I have the percentages of what happens for every drive that started from your own 1 yard line to your opponent's 1 yard line in terms of any type of score, a field goal, a TD, a punt, etc.

The fact that Marshall's kick coverage unit caused 2-4 turnovers last season resulted in almost automatic points based on where they gave their offense the ball. That pushes their unit over another unit that may have allowed a one yard lower average on opponent's starting field position.

When you take all of the important factors into consideration and take the time to detail all of these drives, Marshall had the best kick coverage unit in the country last year.

In other words, I know that based on tens of thousands of drives, there is very minimal difference in allowing a team to start on their own 28 yard line instead of their own 25 yard line. What does that mean? It means that foolish head coaches who are content kicking a ball deep and allowing the return team to get it at the 25 are doing a disservice to their team. They could sky kick it to a defensive end in the up-back position (second line), still give up a 13 yard return, and really lose nothing from it in terms of giving the opponent a higher chance of scoring. On the other hand, they could gain a ton by forcing a non-skill player to try to catch a ball, put the ball in the hands of a guy who isn't used to carrying it, and even possibly getting the ball to land on the ground since a defensive end isn't going to have much experience knowing when to catch the ball or let the real returner go after it.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
Hey Runfaster... I didn't bother to read your 57,000 word manifesto. Why... Because you are a condescending prick. Holy shit, just how much spare time do you have. You tipped your hand a few weeks back when you referred to "twenty dollar program saving donations" by Bobcat Club members. That told me (and I'm sure many others) all I need to know about you, on many levels. By the way, if you are expecting me to respond to, or even acknowledge your douche bag response... Go fuck yourself.


Last edited by wouldn't-it-be-nice on Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:50 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
wouldn't-it-be-nice wrote:
You tipped your hand a few weeks back when you referred to "twenty dollar program saving donations" by Bobcat Club members.

.


That wasn't me. Do you realize why people like you get called "morons" when you throw out baseless accusations while confusing who posted what?

Moron.


Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:19 pm
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Post Re: Georgia State
I assume that you know the NCAA has a new kickoff fair catch rule? So if you fair catch a kickoff anywhere inside the 25, you get the ball at the 25. Kinda hamstrings coaches in what they can do, I think that's a reason you see coaches concede and kick it deep.


Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:08 am
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Post Re: Georgia State
Took me three minutes and I was able to find three sites that use formulas that include the numbers the fraud wants included.

None of them have us as dead last. This year or in 17. His statement is false.

He has been exposed, perhaps not the first time, as a liar. He spouts off inaccuracies to further his own agenda; his personal vendetta against Withers.


Don't bother responding to me run faster. I am no longer able to see your posts.


Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:12 am
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Post Re: Georgia State
Colt Golden wrote:
Took me three minutes and I was able to find three sites that use formulas that include the numbers the fraud wants included.

None of them have us as dead last. This year or in 17. His statement is false.

He has been exposed, perhaps not the first time, as a liar. He spouts off inaccuracies to further his own agenda; his personal vendetta against Withers.


Don't bother responding to me run faster. I am no longer able to see your posts.


There is only one source that uses all of those. Stop lyin'. That source, to people who know what they are talking about, is the very best source in judging all types of football units (offensive line, defensive line, special teams, etc.).

That source had Texas State dead last for 2017 and as of last week, dead last for 2018.

You ran away before having to show proof of those three other sites you claimed used those stats. You're lying.


Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:52 pm
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