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 TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five 
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SuperCat

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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Vegas has us at 2.5 wins which I think it correct. Either 2 or 3 seems the most likely. If we win 4 then I think we go bowling the next year. I wouldn't be too disappointed with 3 because it would be progress, keep us off all the "worst teams" lists, and still give reasonable hope that the next year could be good with so many returning starters. 2 or fewer and I start getting worried about where this ship is heading.

I have said from the beginning that I would support Withers without question for the first two years regardless of record because of his purge strategy. It is impossible to tell much about his potential when you are starting so low. If year three still looks bad then I will get vocal, but in the end I support coaches getting 4 years. With our financial situation a buyout before then isn't realistic anyway.

TLDR: We are young, look for the bright spots, get pissed next year, not this year.


Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:20 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Twinky--you seem to be very hard headed with anyones key take-aways...nit picking words

the point is... kids aren't going to acquire a lot of talent in year 3 or 4 that they didn't already possess in year 2...

age is widely overused as a copout for lack of success

I'll play a solid 3*** freshman or sophmore with raw natural talent over all the low 2** ok-g's that are supposedly developed juniors or seniors any game of the season!

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Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:03 pm
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Bobbumman wrote:
Twinky--you seem to be very hard headed with anyones key take-aways...nit picking words

that's not nitpicking, that's asking you to back up your assertion. if he hadn't asked, i was going to, and since you tried to dodge his post, i'll ask again: what are these high turnover schools that win with freshman and sophomores?

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Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:18 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Here is the number of upperclassmen (juniors and seniors) that started majority of the games for the AP top 15 schools last year:

Team - Offense - Defense
Clemson - 7 - 7
Alabama - 6 - 7
USC - 9 - 4
Washington - 6 - 9
Oklahoma - 7 - 8
Ohio St - 7 - 9
Penn St - 8 - 8
Florida St - 9 - 7
Wisconsin - 8 - 8
Michigan - 7 - 8
Oklahoma St - 10 - 7
Stanford - 7 - 6
LSU - 8 - 8
Florida - 7 - 6
Virginia Tech - 8 - 7

All of these schools get really, really talented freshman and lose really, really talented seniors and redshirt juniors to the NFL draft - and they still play with mostly juniors and seniors.


Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:21 pm
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SuperCat

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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
The idea that we are even discussing the importance of JRs and SRs playing the majority of the snaps is ridiculous. When you see an outstanding freshmen talent playing at a high level, they are usually surrounded by upperclassmen. Bama had a freshmen qb but look at what he was surrounded by. When its all young guys there are too many mental mistakes to win a lot of games. I think upperclassmen leadership is even more important at the non power 5 level because we are dealing with fewer freak athletes that are going to be high draft picks. You have to develop what you have when its a bunch of 2 and 3 star guys. It takes time.


Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:34 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
you can't possibly argue that the schools that win and have juniors and seniors would lose if those same juniors and seniors were still freshman and sophmores. talent is a key to winning...kids talent is not going to drastically change 2 years later

development may help some but it is not always the difference between wins and losses

UTSA won 8 games in 2012 with 6 seniors and USA won 7 games in 2009 with 0 seniors and then won 10 games in 2010

say what you want about their schedule as a startup program...but who did you expect them to schedule as a startup...I'm pretty sure they were limited

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Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:40 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Bobbumman wrote:
UTSA won 8 games in 2012 with 6 seniors and USA won 7 games in 2009 with 0 seniors and then won 10 games in 2010

those teams do not fit the example that you created. name a school that wins with freshman and sophomores.

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Last edited by Saul Goodman on Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:47 pm
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SuperCat

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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
"you can't possibly argue that the schools that win and have juniors and seniors would lose if those same juniors and seniors were still freshman and sophmores."

I can absolutely argue that. Especially at the FCS and lower FBS levels. Sure you can win with a bunch of 4* and 5* freshmen but none of us are getting those. At our level experience and development are key.


Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:56 pm
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SuperCat

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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Looked up the depth chart for App St for last year since they pretty much owned our conference and won a bowl game.

9 of 11 starters on offense were upperclassmen

10 of 11 starters on defense were upperclassmen


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:01 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Bobbumman wrote:
UTSA won 8 games in 2012 with 6 seniors and USA won 7 games in 2009 with 0 seniors and then won 10 games in 2010


Haha

Your 2009 USA example:

7-0 with 7 home games against:
Hargrave Military Academy (~220 students; freshman only)
Army Prep (~240 students; secondary high school-freshman only)
Georgia Military College (~8000 students including high school and online; NJCAA)
Louisburg College (~750 students; NJCAA)
Fork Union Military Academy (~350 students; secondary high school-freshman only)
Milford Academy (~100 students; secondary high school-freshman only)
Huntingdon (~1100 students; NCAA D3; no athletic scholarships)

They beat junior colleges, secondary high schools, prep academies, and a D3 school that doesn't give out athletic scholarships.


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:04 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
Maybe this illustration will help.
Image


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:12 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
The link below is to a story about the trend at big programs where they are redshirting fewer freshmen due to players leaving early for the NFL.

The following paragraph is key in addressing the topic of younger players. Please note that this is talking about NFL caliber freshmen talent...not 2 & 3 star recruits:

"That said, a college freshman is either ready to help a team or not, regardless of what his future potential might be. College practice fields are covered with young players who might have the physical attributes to be drafted one day, but lack either the technique or enough understanding of the game or a particular scheme to be of immediate help. Mental mistakes are costly, and college coaches can only live with so many of them in the name of nurturing potential into production"

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000383458/article/redshirting-in-college-football-trending-downward


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:19 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
tx.state wrote:
Bobbumman wrote:
USA won 7 games in 2009

They beat junior colleges, secondary high schools, prep academies, and a D3 school that doesn't give out athletic scholarships.

if the above were a basketball gif, it would be this one:

Image

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Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:41 pm
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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
make the joke about south alabama but remind me what we did in our 7th season housing a football program (dates back to the turn of the 20th century)? not beating 11win sdsu by 3 scores or the msu bulldogs on the road

august is really the most awful month with football being so close but yet still far away... and it's even further away with 2 losing seasons in a row with the end not in sight

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"I have to do a much better job with this football team"
“I think that this team can be a good, be a good football team, I have to do a better job"
“Again, I think it starts and ends with me.”

-Bill O'Brien


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:43 pm
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SuperCat

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Post Re: TXST predicted to go 1-11 by Forgotten Five
I'm not really sure what you are arguing anymore. USA pulled off a couple of great wins last year. They also went 2-6 in conference. How many underclassmen did they have starting?


Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:54 pm
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