Sleepers and Busts

This weekend I will be having my annual fantasy football draft.  Since this will be the last blog I will write before the draft I figured I would highlight who I think will be this year’s sleepers and busts.  Bear in mind these are my opinions and not necessarily quantified by stats.

Quarterback

Sleeper

Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) – He didn’t have quite a stellar rookie season, and there is no reason to think that he is going to be an elite quarterback, but the Lions have shown continued dedication to improving their offense through the draft.  Stafford should be able to make noticeable strides this coming season and should be a great pickup in the later rounds.

Bust

Brett Favre (Minnesota Vikings) – Remember when Favre played for the Jets and looked merely average with the limited weapons he had.  Well, expect more of that Favre this season with Sidney Rice out for six weeks after hip surgery and Percy Harvin having his share of medical issues.  While the Vikings have made a couple of late acquisitions to help out, don’t expect to see the same Brett Favre that we saw last season.

Running Back

Sleeper

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) – Last season he saw an increase in his work load and production after the departure of Larry Johnson.  He plays for a team that has very few weapons and should be able to get more than his fair share of carries this season.  He’d be a decent 2^nd or 3^rd back in most leagues and should be available in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.

Bust

Shonn Greene (New York Jets) – Yes he had a good finish at the end of last season, but now he’s going to be splitting carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, and if you think the Jets picked him up just to have him ride the pine, then you are sorely mistaken.  Look for a sharp decrease in his production this season.

Wide Receiver

Sleeper

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys) – While he is a rookie, he is probably one of the most touted rookie wideouts in recent years.  Already the speculation has begun that he is going to edge out Roy Williams for the number 2 spot on a very pass happy offense.  Look to pick up Bryant in the 8^th or 9^th round and keep him on the bench a few weeks and by week 4 he will be a viable option to start in most leagues.

Bust

Santonio Holmes (New York Jets) – He was a streaky receive all last season and now he is coming to the Jets whose offense is based more on running the ball and a conservative passing game.  Not to mention that he is suspended to start the season.  While worth a look as maybe a bye week replacement, don’t expect to see him being a true number one wide receiver this year.

Tight End

Sleeper

Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota Vikings) – One of the only reliable tools Favre has left from the Vikings run last year, Shiancoe really started picking up steam at the end of the season.  With him being fully healthy and the issues with the rest of the receiving corps look for Shiancoe to become a favorite target of Favre early this season.  He’s worth a look in the 5^th or 6^th round.

Bust

Zach Miller (Oakland Raiders) – With the addition of a quarterback who is actually better than his record and an improving receiving corps, don’t look for Miller to be as much of a factor as he was last year, which wasn’t much to start with.  There are plenty of better options available even for a backup.

Defense/Special Teams

Sleeper

Steelers – As hard as it is to imagine picking this defense as a sleeper, I am doing it.  A lot of people are blowing them off after a less than stellar 2009 campaign.  However, that was a defense marred with injuries and without star safety Troy Polamalu.  This year they are healthy once again and should be back near the top of the league in most defensive categories.

Bust

Saints – This was a defense that racked up a lot of points based on forcing mistakes.  This year teams will be looking to play better ball against the Saints.  There is little reason for me to make this pick, other than I just have a feeling that they won’t be able to score as many defensive touchdowns this year, but they are still a better bet in a bye week than some of the bottom feeders in the league.

Kicker

I won’t pick a sleeper or a bust because as I stated earlier, most kickers are essentially interchangeable, any kicker who isn’t really worth his salt will be cut rather quickly.  Just go with your gut on this one.

Next week I will give you tips for wheeling and dealing once the season starts as well as a peek at my draft.  Draft well.